Analysis of causal relations between vaccine hesitancy for COVID-19 vaccines and ideological orientations in Brazil.

This article presents a causal inference analysis of vaccine hesitancy for Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines based on socio-demographic data obtained via questionnaires applied to a sample of the Brazilian population. This data includes the respondents' political preferences, age group, education, salary range, country region, sex, believing fake news, vaccine confidence, and intention to get the COVID-19 vaccine. The research created a causal graph using these variables, seeking to answer questions about the probability of people getting vaccinated. The results of this research corroborate findings observed in the literature, also presenting unique findings: (i) The perception that the vaccine is safe is positively affected by age group and negatively by religion; (ii) The older the person, the greater the probability of considering the vaccine safe and, consequently, of getting vaccinated; (iii) The religion variable showed great importance in the model since it has a simultaneous causal effect on political preferences and the perception of vaccine safety; (iv) The data reveal that the probability of a person accepting the vaccination against COVID-19 is reduced given the fact that they believe fake news related to the vaccine. The methodology applied in this research can be replicated for populations from other countries so that it is possible to generate customized models. General causal models can be helpful for agencies dealing with vaccine hesitancy to decide which variables should be addressed to reduce this phenomenon.

Interatividade e ciclo de políticas públicas no Orçamento Participativo Digital: uma análise internacional / Interactividad y ciclo de políticas públicas en el Presupuesto Participativo Digital: un análisis internacional / Interactivity and policy cycle within Electronic Participatory Budgeting: a comparative analysis

Resumo Contemporaneamente, verifica-se a apropriação de tecnologias de informação e comunicação (TIC) por iniciativas que têm como meta a participação cidadã, cujo exemplo emblemático é o orçamento participativo digital (OPD). O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar plataformas de OPD, buscando identificar seus modelos de interatividade e avaliar quão profícuas são as funcionalidades oferecidas em termos políticos no sentido de transmissão de informação política, formulação da agenda pública, emissão de opinião, negociação da diferença e tomada de decisão política. Essa análise possibilitou enquadrar as ferramentas disponibilizadas em seis níveis de interatividade, com base nas variáveis nível de controle do receptor e direção da comunicação, e identificar a quais modelos de OPD as diversas funcionalidades correspondem, bem como quais fases do processo decisório e do ciclo de políticas públicas são contempladas em cada experiência em foco. Foram desenvolvidos estudos de caso em perspectiva comparada, buscando contemplar a diversidade de formatos de OPD existentes.

Resumen Contemporáneamente, se constata la apropiación de las tecnologías de la información y la comunicación por parte de iniciativas que tienen como meta la participación ciudadana, cuyo ejemplo emblemático es el Presupuesto Participativo Digital (PPD). El objetivo de este estudio fue analizar plataformas de PPD, buscando identificar sus modelos de interactividad y evaluar en términos políticos cuán ventajosas son las funcionalidades ofrecidas en el sentido de transmisión de información política, formulación de la agenda pública, emisión de opinión, negociación de la diferencia y toma de decisión política. Este análisis permitió encuadrar las herramientas disponibles en seis niveles de interactividad basados en las variables nivel de control del receptor y dirección de la comunicación, e identificar a qué modelos de PPD corresponden las diversas funcionalidades, así como qué fases del proceso de decisión y del ciclo de políticas públicas están incluidas en cada experiencia analizada. Se desarrollaron estudios de caso en perspectiva comparada, tratando de considerar la diversidad de formatos de PPD existentes.

Abstract Participatory initiatives have increasingly used Information and Communication Technology, such as the Electronic Participatory Budgeting (ePB) to expand and improve participation. This research analyzes ePB platforms emphasizing interactivity aspects, as well as evaluating - in political terms - their functions regarding the dissemination of political information, sharing opinions, agenda-setting, and decision-making. This analysis examined the platforms' tools types of interactivity based on two variables: the level of the receiver's control and communication direction. The research identified ePB models and how the platforms' functions are connected to each of them. The study also recognized in which phases of the decision-making process and the policy cycle the electronic participation is more likely to occur. Case studies in a comparative perspective were used to understand the variety of experiences of ePB.